Working
Paper: 349
Employment-Export Elasticities for the
Indian Textile Industry
Tarun Arora
Abstract
Potential for employment
generation of Indian textile industry, as a result of increase in exports,
is assessed at 3-digit level of National industrial classification 2008
using employment-export elasticities for the period 1988-2013. The
employment and exports data are matched using the central product
classification (Version 2) in order to get the concorded time series data
for the period 1988-2013 and obtain sub-sector level elasticity estimates.
Fully modified OLS (FMOLS) is used to estimate the long run
employment-export elasticities. The elasticities are further used to
forecast the employment till the year 2020 using time series ARIMA modeling
technique. The results suggest remarkably high employment generation
potential for sub-sector 139 (manufacture of other textiles) in comparison
to sub sector 131(spinning, weaving and finishing of textiles). The analysis
is useful in designing sub-sector specific employment generation policies
for industrial sector.
Working Papers